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Tech Check: What are the charts showing us?

As many of you know we use a bullish/bearish technical indicator when managing portfolios. If you are unaware of the system you can refer to our “Our Rule #1 – Risk Management” article. Bottom line, for people that are close to, or maybe already in retirement, the last thing they can suffer is a major draw down in their portfolio a la 2008. That is why we use the indicator. When it tells us we’re bearish we simply raise more cash to preserve capital in client portfolios. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying another 2008 is around the corner . . . this system just allows us to keep individuals who have the goal of capital preservation safe and happy. Here’s how it works . . . When the blue line (10 period exponential moving average) is above the red line (simple moving average) then we are bullish. When the
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Categories: Markets and Strategy.

Global Market “Risk-on” or “Risk-off”?

Things are happening just like we said it would. In our latest market commentary video we said that you would hear some negative things about the market and economy and the market will increase in volatility. It should come as no surprise to those that listened because that’s exactly what is happening. Over the past week I’ve heard and read a lot of bearish comments about the economy and stock market . . . from rising rates will destroy the bull market to the notion that we are still recovering from the 2008 recession.  I hope you listened to the video and are heeding our advice as it shed light on how you should be reacting to what’s happening. To continue along the same theme in that market commentary video, there is a term in the market known as “risk-on” “risk-off.” When the market is “risk-on” people are more optimistic, the market is
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Categories: Markets and Strategy.

A Glimpse at the Global Markets

Global Markets For the past two years the U.S. market has crushed the rest of the globe! The U.S. (S&P 500) is up 42% compared to 15% for Developed Non-U.S. (Europe, Asia, Australia) and -3.5% for the Emerging Markets (China, Brazil, India, etc.). While no one knows when the rest of the globe will catch or even pass the U.S. the returns year to date are interesting. Below is a chart highlighting the returns of the global markets.   As far as the global PE ratios go, here is a brief list. This list highlights the opportunities from a price perspective. While we remain cautious of some areas of the globe, there’s no doubt that there are some great potential opportunities beyond the U.S. United States – 20.3 China – 10.1 Japan – 16.6 India – 19.1 Europe – 18.7 The Good Ole’ U.S. of A.  According to historical probabilities
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Categories: Markets.

A Recap of 2014 and a Preview to 2015

Boom! That’s how 2014 ended. The U.S. market continued its bullish streak (six plus years and counting) as the U.S. economy showed some really good signs of strength. Before we break down our stance on the global markets we need to recap the global returns from 2014. As you can see in the table below, the U.S. market completely destroyed the rest of the globe in terms of market performance. The struggles of Europe worsened the last half of the year while Russia and Brazil’s own issues slowed down the Emerging Markets. The global markets as a whole as represented by the MSCI All World Country index (which many use as the global benchmark) lagged the U.S. again this year. For the past two years the U.S. market has outpaced the rest of the global markets. Our economy, despite what you may see and hear in the press, is growing
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Categories: Markets and Strategy.
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