The Probability of a Positive Year

At Iron Gate, we do everything we can to put the probabilities of making money for you on our side. Our process for buying the best businesses in the world helps put those probabilities in our favor. 

A few of the businesses that we love are still down 20 – 40% from all-time highs. However, (and here’s where it’s important to understand), those businesses are more valuable to today than when their stock was trading higher.

Huh? How does that even make sense?

In this episode we discuss two main topics:

  1. What is the probability that 2023 will be a positive year?
  2. How can a business (stock) be worth more today than when the stock was trading higher?


After answering those questions, we then address the 25% guy. It’s hard, especially after a bad 2022, to continue to be the 25% guy. (Listen to find out who the 25% guy is.)


Here’s to wise investing,

Brett Pattison and Brian Hunsaker

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